24-25

GNFAC Avalanche Forecast for Fri Jan 17, 2025

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>You could still trigger a </span></span></span></span></span></span><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent Slab avalanche </span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span>on weak layers 1-2 ft off the ground. As we get further out from the end of the last loading event, the likelihood of triggering a slide is going down. Still, it’s worth remaining alert, because if you do trigger one of these slides it’ll take out most of the season’s snowpack and be big and destructive. A recent, large, natural avalanche </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33582"><span><span><span><span><span><… Red Mountain</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> in the southern Madison Range, is a good example of the sort of big slide you could still trigger. You’re most likely to trigger one of these slides from a thinner area, whether that’s a lower elevation slope, a thin spot near rocks, or somewhere in the zones around West Yellowstone that generally have a thinner snowpack.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Assessing the likelihood of triggering one of these slides on any given slope is difficult, so your most reasonable options are either to continue avoiding slopes steeper than 30 degrees or to go into avalanche terrain and accept that there is some residual risk of triggering a big slide. If you are getting into avalanche terrain, ride one at a time while your partners wait in a safe spot and make sure everyone in the group has avalanche rescue gear so you are in a good position to respond if you do end up triggering a slide.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>Human triggered avalanches are possible and the avalanche danger is MODERATE today.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Wind slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> are the primary concern near Bozeman and Big Sky. Yesterday, skiers on Mt. Blackmore observed a fresh slide on the north face with a 1-2 ft deep crown that was already filling back in (</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/node/33587"><span><span><span><span><span><…;). Plumes of snow were visibly drifting off the high peaks in the </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/saddle-peak-wind-transport"><span…;, </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/spanish-peaks-wind-transport"><sp…. Madison</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> and</span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.mtavalanche.com/images/25/windy-hyalite"><span><span><span>…; N. Gallatin</span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span> ranges. Winds have also been blowing at lower elevations, so stay on alert for drifting and cross-loaded gullies down low as well.&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>New snow falling today will provide more fuel for ongoing wind loading and could also mask signs of loading from previous days. Keep your eyes out for both new and old wind drifts and either avoid them or assess how well they’re bonded before getting onto a steep slope.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><strong><span><span>Persistent slab avalanches</span></span></strong></span></span></span><span><span><span><span><span><span> have become mostly unlikely in many areas where the snowpack has gotten deeper, but they are a lingering concern in places with shallower snow (see </span></span></span></span></span></span><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P67rnZVHF7g"><span><span><span><span><s…’s video from Beehive </span></span></u></span></span></span></span></span></a><span><span><span><span><span><span>for a good example).&nbsp;</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

<p><span><span><span><span><span><span>The avalanche danger is MODERATE.</span></span></span></span></span></span></p>

Upcoming Avalanche Education and Events

Our education calendar is full of awareness lectures and field courses. Check it out: Events and Education Calendar

Hebgen Obs

Date
Activity
Skiing

This morning we went touring at Hebgen up to the ridgelines near the northern end of the lake. Winds were calm for the duration of our tour. Snow depths are still pretty shallow relative to much of the advisory area, around 95cm HS on the ridgelines at 9000 feet. We experienced no cracking or collapsing but kept a high degree of suspicion due to the shallow, weak snowpack and stayed off avalanche terrain. 

We encountered widespread surface hoar on east aspects above 8000 feet. There were enough intermittent clouds and lack of winds that I suspect it could be buried by the next round of snowfall. Time will tell!

Region
Lionhead Range
Location (from list)
Hebgen Lake
Observer Name
R Parsons

Saddle Peak Wind Transport

Date

Bridger Bowl Ski Patrol shared this photo of wind transport on Saddle Peak on 1/16/25.

Region
Bridger Range
Location (from list)
Saddle Peak
Observer Name
BBSP

Soft Slab Avalanche on North Face of Blackmore

Mt Blackmore
Northern Gallatin
Code
SS-N
Aspect
N
Latitude
45.44440
Longitude
-111.00400
Notes

Observed a fresh slide on the north side of Mt Blackmore, crown was already filling in, but looked to be a foot or two deep in steep rocky terrain to the skiers left of the north couloir

Number of slides
1
Number caught
0
Number buried
0
Avalanche Type
Soft slab avalanche
Trigger
Natural trigger
Problem Type
Wind-Drifted Snow
Slab Thickness
18.0 inches
Snow Observation Source
Slab Thickness units
inches
Single / Multiple / Red Flag
Single Avalanche
Advisory Year

Observed a fresh slide on the north side of Mt Blackmore, crown was already filling in, but looked to be a foot or two deep in steep rocky terrain to the skiers left of the north couloir. Photo: S Jonas

Northern Gallatin, 2025-01-16